Monday, November 27, 2006

Now THIS is a Big Surprise

Perhaps Le John will rethink whether the "botched joke" will hurt him if he runs in '08 if he's seen this.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

What About Judges?

One interesting question that arises as a consequence of the Democrats victory in last week's elections is what happens to President Bush's judicial nominations strategy? It is a virtual certainty that the weaker and/or more controversial of the pending nominees (e.g., Haynes, Wallace, Myers) are finished. There is no possibility of these nominees being confirmed, and re-nominating them again when Congress reconvenes after the New Year would be a waste of time. Others, such as Randy Smith and Peter Kiesler could still possibly be confirmed if the White House and the Republican Senate leadership are committed to spending the political capital necessary to get them confirmed. The more interesting element of this question is what will happen if there should be a Supreme Court vacancy before the expiration of the President's term. Conventional wisdom is that the President would have no prayer of getting a solid concervative (such as Janice Rogers Brown) confirmed. But conventional wisdom can be, and often is, wrong. One of the critical determinants of whether a conservative Supreme Court nominee can be confirmed at this point is whether new Democrat senators such as Bob Casey and Jim Webb cast their votes consistent with the themes they emphasized during the campaign, or whether they bow down and do the bidding of the old bull liberals in the leadership. Time may well tell.

Oops (or, can I change those predictions?)

OK, so for once Terry McCauliffe was right and I was wrong. The Republicans obviously got whooped in last week's election. Congratulations to the Democrats, and good luck. I expect that Mr. Reid and Ms. Pelosi will find that actually governing is a lot harder than simply repeating "Bush stinks" over and over to anyone who will listen, and even some who won't.

Monday, November 06, 2006

Ortega Redux

This is not good news. At 40% Ortega has about the same level of support that Bill Clinton garnered in 1992.

Addendum to Election Predictions

I inexplicably forgot to mention the Missouri Senate race,although my prediction is probably obvious from my predicted bottom line outcome. In any event, I expect Jim Talent to be re-elected and,as with the Allen race, I do not anticipate that the final margin will be as close as the polling data suggests. Look for Talent to win by about 5 points.

White Knuckle Time for the Democrats

Seems that the left is getting a little nervous about what appears to be a gathering of momentum for Republican candidates heading into tomorrow's elections. I have one quibble with Mr. Scheiber's piece - his speculation that there is an inherent pro-Republican/conservative bias in polls conducted in whole or in part over the weekend is incorrect. Historically, such polls skew pro-Democrat. Which means perhaps the Democrats have even more toworry about than Mr. Scheiber would think.

New ECUSA Presiding Bishop Calls for Reconciliation

I expect that what Ms. Schori means by "reconciliation" is for the traditionalist remnant in ECUSA to capitulate and to acquiesce in the ascendancy of the new religion to which she and her ilk subscribe. What she almost certainly does not mean is for the left wing, revisionist majority in ECUSA to show any degree of tolerance for dissent in their ranks. You can be assured that, unless the traditionalists either leave the Episcopal Church for good, or simply give up and give in to the prevailing currents, the ethnic cleansing of those who actually seek to uphold the Faith and traditional Anglican teaching will proceed apace.

Election Predictions

Pronouncements of impending Republican doom emanating from the hallowed halls of such MSM outlets as the New York Times and The Managua,er, Washington Post notwithstanding, there is no reasonable doubt that the momentum in these elections has been all Republican for the last several days and heading into the actual balloting tomorrow. It appears likely that the R's will suffer losses considerably lighter than expected. I expect that Rick Santorum will likely lose in Pennsylvania (although it appears that Rixk has all the momentum, and an upset is not out of the question), as willMike DeWine in Ohio. On the other side of the ledger, look for Mike Steele to take the open seat in Maryland, and Bob Corker to bury Harold Ford, Tennessee. Bob Menendez will probably edge out Tom Kean,Jr., who certainly gave the New Jesrey bosses all they could handle. Also look for George Allen to hold his seat in a race that, when the votes are counted,will not likely be as close as the polls seem to suggest. Finally, Conrad Burns and Lincoln Chafee will also hold their seats. Bottom line - a net gain of 1 seat for the D's On the House side of the ledger, I expect the D's will come closer to taking control, but still no cigar. Net gain of 12 seats, 3 short of a majority.