Can Obama Win Evangelical Votes?

Nicole Russell has an interesting post up on The American Thinker positing that Barack Obama may be able to make inroads with conservative evangelical voters who were sufficiently disenchanted with the GOP to stay home in large numbers in the 2006 Congressional elections. Russell's argument seems to be premised on the fact that Obama is young and charming, which has eeemingly endeared him to some evangelicals, and his willingness to speak openly about his faith, something of a new phenomenon for a Democrat candidate. Russell acknowledges Obama's very liberal record, but points out that he has largely been courting a bloc of evangelicals more interested in AIDS and poverty than abortion and gay marriage. As interesting as the theory is, and as appealing as I am sure the Democrat party finds the prospect of peeling away evangelical votes, I wouldn't bet too much on the likelihood of the outcome. Fact is, evangelicals, and many conservatives, deserted the GOP in 2006 because the GOP deserted the principles that got it elected in the first place. While the Rick Warren's of the world are no doubt happy to have Barack Obama sit on the dais at AIDS and anti-poverty get togethers, the likelihood that a guy with Obama's voting record - and make no mistake, it is very, very liberal - will successfully woo the evangelical rank and file, is virtually nil.

Ford, Reagan and the Conservative Uprising

Jonathan Martin has written a very interesting piece for National Review Online about the 1976 contest for the Republican presidential nomination between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan. I remember well that primary season, and the convention in Kansas City in August of that year, as well as the excietment that Reagan seemed to generate. As Martin suggests, I believe that that primary battle did truly mark the end of the Establishment, moderate era in the GOP. The dwindling numbers of the so called moderates in the Republican ranks would seem to bear out that analysis. Ford is of course to be credited for his hard fought win over Reagan. Indeed, I expect that it is likely that the bitterness of that defeat left the conservatives all the more determined to finish the job in 1980, which we obviously did.

Aid and Comfort

Lest there be any doubt as to whose side the Democrat Congressional leadership is on, and whether that band of thugs wishes to see America win in the war on terror, the incoming leadership evidently plans to revisit the question of detainees rights. The ever reliable Arlen Specter apparently plans to join the party.

Mark Steyn on Saddam's Execution

The redoubtable Mark Steyn, as usual, makes some very cogent observations on the demise of the Butcher of Baghdad:

And to have convicted, sentenced and executed the dictator is a signal accomplishment for the new Iraq. When I was in Ramadi, west of Baghdad, shortly after the war, a young boy showed me his schoolbook. It was like my textbooks at his age - full of doodles and squiggles and amusing additions to the illustrations. With one exception: the many pages bearing pictures of Saddam were in pristine condition. Even a bored schoolboy doesn't get so careless that he forgets where not to draw the line. When the cowardly thug emerged from his hole, it was a rare moment: in the fetid stability of the Middle East, how often do you get to see a big-time dictator looking like some boxcar hobo and meekly submitting to a lice inspection by an American soldier?...

The reality is that, as long as he was alive, there was always the possibility that he would return. When a dictator has exercised the total control over his subjects that Saddam did, his hold on them can only end with his death.

Hat tip: Hugh Hewitt.

Happy New Year

President Ford, R.I.P.

I was away for a few days over the Christmas holiday, and wasn't able to post about this in a timely fashion. I would like to join the millions of Americans who are morning the death of former President Gerald Ford. He was a good a decent man who was thrust into the presidency at one of the most difficult times in our history. His steady hand and quiet integrity were a much needed balm after the last tumultuous days of the Nixon Administration. There is much that can and will be said about Gerald Ford the man, the politician and the president. For now, I would simply like to say thank you, sir. May you rest in peace.

Rudy in NH? He Should Save Himself the Trip

Apparently Rudy Giuliani, presidential aspirant, is visiting New Hampshire. He should save himself the trip. He has no prayer of being the Republican nominee in 2008. He is stridently pro-abortion and is pro-gay rights. I am certainly willing to commend him for his leadership in New York City after 9/11. But what segment of the Republican primary electorate does he appeal to, aside, perhaps, from the Log Cabin types (as if they have any influence whatsoever over the nominating process)? And we can safely assume that any mainstream Republican primary voter willing to credit Gioulani for his post-9/11 leadership is likely to find almost any other possible candidate, including John McCain. More palatable. My record for predictions of late might not be the best, but I will wager my last nickle that Rudy will NOT be the nominee.

Paleoconservative Primer

Bill Calhoun has presented this pretty good primer on paleoconservatism over at Capitol Hill Coffee House, explaining who paleos are and what they believe. In the aftermath of this year's Republican election debacle, there is a war for the soul of the party, and of conservatism, on the horizon, and its best to know and understand the players and competing philosophies.

Worst President Ever

David Horowitz takes down Jimmy Carter, the worst president and worst former presdient in our nation's history, over at Frontpagemagazine.com.

Why Pennsylvania Voters, and All Americans, Will Regret Rick Santorum's Loss

Outgoing Senator Rick Santorm shows yet again that he is one of the few in Washington that really understands what is at stake in Iraq. One thing is, I think, for certain. Little Bobby Casey doesn't get it. And by the time that Bobby leanrs that he has to actually show up for this job, defeat may well be at hand. God speed, Senator Santorum.

General Pinochet, RIP

History will, I believe, be kind to General Pinochet. The human rights abuses are to be deplored and condemned. He saved Chile from far worse, however, halting, and then reversing. what would have doubtless been a rapid slide into a collectivist totaltitarian nightmare. When the people spoke, the General gave up the reigns of power peaceably. By that time a firm foundation for economic, and, indeed, politcal, freedom, had been laid. Chileans enjoy their freedoms today in n o small part to the efforts of Genral Pinochet. May he rest in peace.

Now THIS is a Big Surprise

Perhaps Le John will rethink whether the "botched joke" will hurt him if he runs in '08 if he's seen this.

What About Judges?

One interesting question that arises as a consequence of the Democrats victory in last week's elections is what happens to President Bush's judicial nominations strategy? It is a virtual certainty that the weaker and/or more controversial of the pending nominees (e.g., Haynes, Wallace, Myers) are finished. There is no possibility of these nominees being confirmed, and re-nominating them again when Congress reconvenes after the New Year would be a waste of time. Others, such as Randy Smith and Peter Kiesler could still possibly be confirmed if the White House and the Republican Senate leadership are committed to spending the political capital necessary to get them confirmed. The more interesting element of this question is what will happen if there should be a Supreme Court vacancy before the expiration of the President's term. Conventional wisdom is that the President would have no prayer of getting a solid concervative (such as Janice Rogers Brown) confirmed. But conventional wisdom can be, and often is, wrong. One of the critical determinants of whether a conservative Supreme Court nominee can be confirmed at this point is whether new Democrat senators such as Bob Casey and Jim Webb cast their votes consistent with the themes they emphasized during the campaign, or whether they bow down and do the bidding of the old bull liberals in the leadership. Time may well tell.

Oops (or, can I change those predictions?)

OK, so for once Terry McCauliffe was right and I was wrong. The Republicans obviously got whooped in last week's election. Congratulations to the Democrats, and good luck. I expect that Mr. Reid and Ms. Pelosi will find that actually governing is a lot harder than simply repeating "Bush stinks" over and over to anyone who will listen, and even some who won't.

Ortega Redux

This is not good news. At 40% Ortega has about the same level of support that Bill Clinton garnered in 1992.

Addendum to Election Predictions

I inexplicably forgot to mention the Missouri Senate race,although my prediction is probably obvious from my predicted bottom line outcome. In any event, I expect Jim Talent to be re-elected and,as with the Allen race, I do not anticipate that the final margin will be as close as the polling data suggests. Look for Talent to win by about 5 points.

White Knuckle Time for the Democrats

Seems that the left is getting a little nervous about what appears to be a gathering of momentum for Republican candidates heading into tomorrow's elections. I have one quibble with Mr. Scheiber's piece - his speculation that there is an inherent pro-Republican/conservative bias in polls conducted in whole or in part over the weekend is incorrect. Historically, such polls skew pro-Democrat. Which means perhaps the Democrats have even more toworry about than Mr. Scheiber would think.

New ECUSA Presiding Bishop Calls for Reconciliation

I expect that what Ms. Schori means by "reconciliation" is for the traditionalist remnant in ECUSA to capitulate and to acquiesce in the ascendancy of the new religion to which she and her ilk subscribe. What she almost certainly does not mean is for the left wing, revisionist majority in ECUSA to show any degree of tolerance for dissent in their ranks. You can be assured that, unless the traditionalists either leave the Episcopal Church for good, or simply give up and give in to the prevailing currents, the ethnic cleansing of those who actually seek to uphold the Faith and traditional Anglican teaching will proceed apace.

Election Predictions

Pronouncements of impending Republican doom emanating from the hallowed halls of such MSM outlets as the New York Times and The Managua,er, Washington Post notwithstanding, there is no reasonable doubt that the momentum in these elections has been all Republican for the last several days and heading into the actual balloting tomorrow. It appears likely that the R's will suffer losses considerably lighter than expected. I expect that Rick Santorum will likely lose in Pennsylvania (although it appears that Rixk has all the momentum, and an upset is not out of the question), as willMike DeWine in Ohio. On the other side of the ledger, look for Mike Steele to take the open seat in Maryland, and Bob Corker to bury Harold Ford,Jr.in Tennessee. Bob Menendez will probably edge out Tom Kean,Jr., who certainly gave the New Jesrey bosses all they could handle. Also look for George Allen to hold his seat in a race that, when the votes are counted,will not likely be as close as the polls seem to suggest. Finally, Conrad Burns and Lincoln Chafee will also hold their seats. Bottom line - a net gain of 1 seat for the D's On the House side of the ledger, I expect the D's will come closer to taking control, but still no cigar. Net gain of 12 seats, 3 short of a majority.

Snarlin' Arlen v. The ABA

Evidently Arlen Specter doesn't think much of the ABA's hatchet job on Michael Wallace, a nominee to the 5th Circuit. Sentaor Specter has asked the Judiciary Committee to reject the ABA's report, among other measure. Fox News had the story earlier today. Hat Tip: Bashman